A China led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge

• PYQs linkage:
• Examine the Geo-strategic points of contention in the bilateral relationship between India and China. 15(2021)
• Does the idea of the 21^st century as ‘Asian century’ continue to remain a feasible given the growing friction between India and China? 15(2024)

• Theory application:

Indian strategic culture

• Nehruvian: India has to pursue a steady, patient course of diplomacy with China.
• Neo liberal: Older security problems and rivalries will gradually dissipate as economics comes Centre-stage. A concert of Asians to regulate intra-Asian conflicts is an ideas whose time has probable come and gone.
• Hyper realist: they regard the international system as an anarchical arena, where power is the ultimate arbiter. In such a system, the only way of restraining the great powers is to make India strong enough to defend its interests. (Brahma Chellaney’s views)
• Concepts and keywords:
• Trilaterals, regional alignments and geopolitics, iron clad friendship, pragmatic engagement,
• China-Pakistan Economic corridor

• Important facts:

Use of trilaterals

• Pakistan had a loan of over $29 billion from China (2024)
• 80% Pakistan’s arms imports are from China.
• China shielded Pakistan-based terrorists at the UN

• Brief analysis and key points from the news or editorial:
• China and Pakistan Nexus : iron clad friendship which keeps India engaged with immediate threats and limit it from challenging Beijing’s interests, security, and status.

1. China offers Pakistan economic and military assistance to support its aggression against India. (Pakistan deployed Chinese hardware and weapons during recent conflict)
2. China termed operation Sindoor “regrettable” and urged a political solution and dialogue.
3. Idea of China and Pakistan using plus one against India (Use of trilaterals): China-Pakistan- Bangladesh and China-Pakistan-Afghanistan: to make Pakistan a stakeholder in region and keeping India preoccupied with immediate concern.

• Challenges to India:
• Pakistan has increased security, economic and political engagements with the new government in Bangladesh.
• Pakistan’s influence in Bangladesh and Afghanistan, supported by China and its economic clout, could create new terror and security-related challenges.
• Making way for Chinese BRI projects, interests and investments in south Asia.
• Indian response:

1. faced these challenges with confidence, retaliated in befitting manner.
2. India used its diplomatic clout and growing economy to isolate Pakistan. (this reflects Neo liberal approach)
3. Suspension of the Indus water treaty, halting trade, restricting port access, and targeting military installations. (damaging Pakistan military’s operational capacities and confidence)
4. Close cooperation with like-minded countries to limit Chinese aggressions.
5. India’s pragmatic engagement in the region: Maldives turned to India to keep its economy running, Sri Lanka developing close ties with India, trilateral energy cooperation with Bangladesh and Nepal despite differences, Pragmatic engagement between India and Taliban,

• What needs to be done by India:
• India will have to continue to express redlines and convey the point that any misadventures by it neighbours could have severe economic consequences.

• Practice question (framed on the basis of PYQs dimensions):

The trilateral nexus created by China and Pakistan against India in South Asian region can have wide ranging strategic implications. Comment. 20 Marks (300 words)